Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , Emergency Service, Hospital , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , VaccinationABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: Patients, families and community members would like emergency department wait time visibility. This would improve patient journeys through emergency medicine. The study objective was to derive, internally and externally validate machine learning models to predict emergency patient wait times that are applicable to a wide variety of emergency departments. METHODS: Twelve emergency departments provided 3 years of retrospective administrative data from Australia (2017-2019). Descriptive and exploratory analyses were undertaken on the datasets. Statistical and machine learning models were developed to predict wait times at each site and were internally and externally validated. Model performance was tested on COVID-19 period data (January to June 2020). RESULTS: There were 1 930 609 patient episodes analysed and median site wait times varied from 24 to 54 min. Individual site model prediction median absolute errors varied from±22.6 min (95% CI 22.4 to 22.9) to ±44.0 min (95% CI 43.4 to 44.4). Global model prediction median absolute errors varied from ±33.9 min (95% CI 33.4 to 34.0) to ±43.8 min (95% CI 43.7 to 43.9). Random forest and linear regression models performed the best, rolling average models underestimated wait times. Important variables were triage category, last-k patient average wait time and arrival time. Wait time prediction models are not transferable across hospitals. Models performed well during the COVID-19 lockdown period. CONCLUSIONS: Electronic emergency demographic and flow information can be used to approximate emergency patient wait times. A general model is less accurate if applied without site-specific factors.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Emergency Medicine , COVID-19/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Emergency Service, Hospital , Humans , Retrospective Studies , Triage , Waiting ListsABSTRACT
Homeless individuals face many barriers to accessing healthcare, and EDs are often their primary entry point to the healthcare system. The COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to exacerbate existing social inequities and health disparities, including barriers to accessing social services and healthcare. Addressing the complex social and chronic health issues associated with homelessness can be challenging within the acute care environment. This perspective reflects upon the delivery of emergency healthcare to patients experiencing homelessness, and highlights strategies for optimising health outcomes during and beyond the pandemic.